Ok I am sure others are thinking things but I am going to be bold and list my predictions for the world as it may be post the Sun Oracle Merger. I have been telling this to people around the office and I thought well lets make a real fool and try it out there in the big wide world.

This is my take on how the Sun products fare after the merger, here we go:

MySQL will be bigger and better than ever

Why you ask, MySQL has a huge base in lightweight databases across the web supporting many Open Source projects and millions of websites. Oracle cannot sell Oracle databases licenses to all those Most cannot afford it and many will just migrate to a new free product. Instead Oracle will increase support for MYSQL doing what it does best. It will look to leveraging from those customers so that when they need to scale up to something bigger for a project, they will look to Oracle for the Oracle database to support that project. Oracle already a couple of years ago bought a transaction engine for My SQL, so that will dovetail in nicely.
One of the first things I expect oracle to do is get the MySQL people together to understand the issues with the fragmentation of the code base and forks that have developed and bring everyone back to the same single code base. It is to Oracles best interest to have the efforts singularly focused to utilise MySQL as a great feed product into the use of the other products and Oracle Support for your MySQL databases.

Prediction: It’s staying and will get bigger and better

Java & Java FX

This is probably the real baby oracle wants out of all this. They have been major contributors for a number of years to the development of Java. Oracle has a huge investment in Java and its future, They will tend and care for it well as if they convince IBM of their unworthiness of holders of the flag IBM will make their life hell. It probably will not help either and be a benefit to Microsoft more than any other. FX will have a lot of effort poured into it to develop rich Java applications this is something Oracle will see great benefit in not only for their own products but for many other products.
Expect to see a lot of good stuff come from the Java team to support all Java developers to build fast rich and easy developed Web Applications.

Prediction: It’s staying and will get bigger and better

Solaris X86

This has been a niche product for most of its life. It had many issues and Sun never saw it worth developing fully. I don’t see it going away instead I see the Open Source project being better resourced to garner product enhancements that go into the SPARC platform. Expect a solid X86 Open Source project, but don’t expect Oracle databases to run unless it develops code compatibility with Linux and its usage widens dramatically. Oracle has supported Oracle 10 on x86 but has seen little penetration.

Prediction: Will remain as Open Source

Application Server Glassfish

The Glassfish project will remain and will be open-source, the commercial end will go as Oracle focuses its efforts on Weblogic. Interesting and useful features and ideas will evolve in Glassfish and be ported into Weblogic.

Prediction: Its staying but only as open source

Sun hardware business

Particularly the SPARC business was always part of the main plan so it has a proposed long life ahead. X86 there is no reason to ditch it as it runs the Linux program of which there is a large investment on Oracles part. hardware not going anywhere and I expect further acquisitions to build out the Sun hardware product range over time to provide a Sun data centre.

Prediction: Its staying, but only as open source

Identity Management

Sun has a good business here and some of the Oracle product might end up dead instead, replaced by Sun product. Once again the open Source projects will be alive and well. Oracle has a great source of product ideas in all the open source project, They are great at the business end and will monetise it. Some will stay and some will be retired as oracle puts together a better solution out of existing and the new Sun gear.

Prediction: Some of it is staying

NetBeans

Netbeans is possibly going to fold. Oracle already has JDeveloper and supports Eclipse for Weblogic. I don’t see why this would be kept unless it has a substantial user base that is worth maintaining.

Prediction: I expect it to go.

OpenOffice

This just doesn’t fit with Oracle, but could it I do think it has great value. Weave the oracle Instant client into the product in the Star Office version or just make it easily integrate and allow the use of Open Office base or any other part be able to integrate to the databases both Oracle and MySQL. I see further integration to other products in the Oracle suite driving a compelling reason for corporations to give Open Office some daylight in their product mix.

Prediction: Its staying

The wrap

I also see Oracle working to develop a bundle for deployment that targets Microsoft from the bottom in the application server and database market using Linux/Solaris x86/Glassfish and MySQL as the basis of that offering. many of them would not have bought Oracle but will have to opportunity of buying Oracle support for their bundled server. Oracle only needs to add some great console tools similar to a CPanel product that web hosts already use and a well managed web driven appliance product is ready to rock and white ant the low end MS customer base

I think the new Sun driven Exabyte “Wow what a machine is showing the way of the future with the Sun Oracle Merger and unfortunately it doesn’t run Solaris for those that were wondering”

There will be some products that end, but they probably never would have lived with Sun as an independent business anyway.

So that’s my predictions

Anyone else willing to guess the future?

See ya round

Peter